Analysis of Trades and Trading Recommendations for the British Pound

The 1.2473 price test occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly downward from the zero mark, limiting the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell GBP/USD and missed the entire downward move.

Weak data from the UK construction sector PMI quickly erased any hope for a correction after yesterday's sell-off. Investor uncertainty worsened the situation, especially ahead of the Bank of England (BoE) meeting, where an interest rate cut is widely expected. This, in turn, could lead to further GBP/USD weakness.

Apart from the BoE decision, the U.S. labor market report will also play a role today. The weekly initial jobless claims report is due, but unless the numbers deviate significantly from economists' forecasts, traders may not react much to it. However, speeches by FOMC members Christopher Waller and Mary Daly should not be overlooked, as they could provide insights into the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy direction.

For my intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Buying GBP/USD is possible at 1.2430 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.2470. At 1.2470, I plan to exit long positions and open sell trades in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30-35 point downward move. Buying GBP today is justified only after weak U.S. economic data.

Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy GBP/USD if the price tests 1.2406 twice, provided the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. Target levels: 1.2430 and 1.2470.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Selling GBP/USD is possible after breaking 1.2406 (red line on the chart) with a target of 1.2366. At 1.2366, I plan to exit short positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20-25 point upward move. Sellers will dominate if U.S. data is strong.

Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell GBP/USD if the price tests 1.2430 twice, provided the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. Target levels: 1.2406 and 1.2366.

Chart Key

• Thin green line – Entry price for buying.
• Thick green line – Estimated Take Profit level or potential price to exit long positions, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – Entry price for selling.
• Thick red line – Estimated Take Profit level or potential price to exit short positions, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator – Always consider overbought and oversold zones before entering the market.

Important Notes for Beginner Forex Traders

Be cautious when making trading decisions, especially before key fundamental reports are released. Avoid trading during major news events to minimize exposure to sharp price swings. Always set stop-loss orders to limit potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly deplete your deposit, especially when trading large volumes.

A well-structured trading plan is essential—use a strategy similar to the one outlined above. Avoid impulsive trading decisions based on current market movements—this approach is typically a losing strategy for intraday traders.