Analysis of Wednesday's Trades
1H Chart of GBP/USD
The GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement on Wednesday, but it fell back in the afternoon. As previously noted, yesterday's movements in the euro were generally logical, but they appeared illogical from a local macroeconomic perspective. The British pound exhibited a similar illogical behavior. In the morning, GBP/USD saw an increase, even though the only report available—the UK Services PMI—was disappointing. In the afternoon, weak ADP and ISM reports could have supported further growth, but by that time, the price had already begun to decline. Nevertheless, from a medium-term viewpoint, the growth of the pound makes sense as it represents a correction on the daily timeframe following a three-month downtrend. Today, the Bank of England meeting and Andrew Bailey's speech are scheduled, which means market movements could be highly unpredictable throughout the day. A decrease in GBP/USD should be expected, as the decisions made by the BoE are likely to be dovish. However, once this event is priced in, the pound may resume its upward movement.
5M Chart of GBP/USD
On the 5-minute timeframe, two strong trading signals emerged on Wednesday. First, the pair broke through the 1.2502–1.2508 range, albeit not very precisely, and subsequently reached the nearest target level. Second, a rebound at 1.2547 created an opportunity for novice traders to open short positions. By the evening, the price returned to the 1.2502–1.2507 area. As a result, two clear trades could have been executed, both of which proved to be profitable.
Trading Strategy for Thursday:
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair is currently in a short-term uptrend, which we view as a correction. From a medium-term perspective, we anticipate a decline towards 1.1800, as we believe this is the most likely outcome. As a result, we are waiting for the upward correction on the daily timeframe to conclude. This week, market movements may be volatile and hard to interpret.
On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair is likely to experience a downward pullback before continuing its upward movement. As always, it's essential to monitor key levels closely.
On the 5-minute timeframe, you can trade at the following levels: 1.2010, 1.2052, 1.2089-1.2107, 1.2164-1.2170, 1.2241-1.2270, 1.2301, 1.2372-1.2387, 1.2445, 1.2502-1.2508, 1.2547, 1.2633, 1.2680-1.2685, 1.2723, and 1.2791-1.2798. The results of the BoE meeting are scheduled for Thursday, and in the US, there will only be a secondary report on jobless claims. The BoE meeting and Bailey's speech will be the key events to watch today.
Core Trading System Rules:
- Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
- False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
- Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
- Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
- MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
- Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
- Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 20 pips in the desired direction.
Key Chart Elements:
Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.
Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.
MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.
Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals.
Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.
