Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The test of the 1.0812 price level coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning its downward move from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair dropped by 20 pips.

Comments from Federal Reserve officials stating that interest rates should remain at restrictive levels contributed to the decline of the EUR/USD pair. Specifically, remarks by New York Fed President John Williams about the need to keep rates elevated until inflation consistently moves toward the 2% target put pressure on the euro. Investors interpreted this as a signal that monetary policy easing is unlikely soon. Considering that upcoming moves will depend on new economic data and Fed commentary, the correction in EUR/USD is expected to continue.

No economic reports are scheduled for the eurozone today, so the pair may continue to fall. Without clear catalysts, traders will have to rely on general market sentiment and technical levels—and as seen lately, the sentiment has been rather pessimistic. In such conditions, a break of key support that coincides with the weekly low could trigger further declines.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the euro today if the price reaches the 1.0800 area (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.0847. At 1.0847, I intend to exit long positions and sell in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 pip pullback. A euro rally in the first half of the day is unlikely. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and starting to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0775 level while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downside potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. Growth to 1.0800 and 1.0847 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.0775 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0732, where I intend to exit short positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 pip bounce. Selling pressure on the pair is expected to return during the first half of the day as part of the correction. Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0800 level while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upside potential and trigger a reversal to the downside. A decline toward 1.0775 and 1.0732 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.