Trade Review and Trading Advice for the Japanese Yen

There were no tests of the designated levels during the first half of the day.

During the U.S. session, a series of speeches by Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members is expected. This week, they've been supporting the U.S. dollar, so their interviews should be monitored closely. In particular, interviews with Neel Kashkari and Alberto Musalem are scheduled. Their remarks will likely touch on the current inflation situation and monetary policy outlook. Hawkish rhetoric may strengthen the dollar. Given that the Bank of Japan is in no rush to raise interest rates—as its governor stated this morning—the dollar may continue to gain ground against the yen. The key factor will be whether U.S. data outperforms economists' forecasts.

As for intraday strategy, I will focus on executing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the 150.36 entry point (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 150.87 (thicker green line). I plan to exit long positions at 150.87 and open short positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point reversal. The pair may rise as part of a bullish correction. Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 150.12 level while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This would limit downward potential and potentially trigger an upward reversal. A rise toward the 150.36 and 150.87 levels can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below the 150.12 level (red line on the chart), which should result in a quick drop. The primary target for sellers will be 149.61, where I will exit short positions and open long positions immediately in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point rebound. Selling pressure may arise at any moment today. Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 150.36 level, with MACD in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal to the downside. A decline toward the 150.12 and 149.61 levels can be expected.

Chart Legend:

• Thin green line – Entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – Suggested price to place Take Profit or close the trade manually, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – Entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – Suggested price to place Take Profit or close the trade manually, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely
• MACD Indicator – When entering the market, rely on overbought and oversold zones

Important Note for Beginners:

Beginner Forex traders must be extremely cautious when deciding to enter the market. It's best to stay out of the market ahead of major fundamental releases to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-losses, your deposit can be wiped out very quickly—especially if you're not using money management principles and trading large volumes.

And remember: Successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.