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इंस्टाफॉरेक्स 2007 में बनाया गया एक अंतरराष्ट्रीय ब्रांड है। कंपनी ऑनलाइन एफएक्स ट्रेडिंग के लिए सेवाएं प्रदान करती है और इसे दुनिया के अग्रणी ब्रोकरों में से एक के रूप में मान्यता प्राप्त है। हमने 7,000,000 से अधिक खुदरा व्यापारियों का विश्वास जीता है, जिन्होंने पहले ही हमारी विश्वसनीयता और नवाचारों पर ध्यान केंद्रित करने की सराहना की है।
Financial markets are shaking again: the S&P 500 is tumbling so fast that veterans recall the COVID-era crash, oil is taking a one-two punch from Trump and OPEC+, the dollar has suddenly lost its "safe-haven" glow, slipping behind the euro, while Meta, bleeding billions, has theatrically pulled Llama 4 out of its sleeve, hoping that AI could outshine a shrinking market cap. What is really happening behind the curtain of this market meltdown and how can traders profit amid today's global turbulence? Let's break it down.
S&P 500 loses $5.4 trillion in two days: Trump's tariff storm hits markets
The US stock market is experiencing its worst collapse since March 2020. The S&P 500 plunged 6% in a single session, with a total loss of $5.4 trillion in market cap over just two days. The Nasdaq 100 also tumbled 6.1%, officially entering bear market territory. What triggered this sell-off, why could it get worse, and how can traders turn this to their advantage?
The American equity market is enduring its sharpest drop in years: last week, the S&P 500 shed 11% in just two days, wiping out more than $5.4 trillion in market value. The sell-off marks the worst since the onset of the pandemic in March 2020.
Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 plunged 6.1%, crossing into bear market territory. The sell-off cut across all sectors, leaving only 14 of the 500 S&P components in the green. Tech giants took the brunt of the damage: shares of Nvidia and Apple fell more than 7%, while Tesla sank 10%.
The semiconductor sector was not spared either—Micron and Marvell dropped 13% and 11%, respectively. Investors are exiting risk assets en masse, as evidenced by a $4.7 billion outflow from US equities in the first week of April.
The root cause is not economic weakness but a new reality: the United States is once again launching trade wars. On April 2, President Donald Trump imposed the harshest tariffs in a century—10% on all imports, with even higher rates on goods from 60 countries, including China.
China's response came swiftly: starting April 10, it will impose a 34% tariff on all US goods, plus targeted restrictions on American arms and agricultural exporters.
Already on edge, markets could not digest the avalanche of headlines. The VIX volatility index surged past 45, levels not seen outside the most anxious market phases of the past decades.
Against this backdrop, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, speaking Friday at a business media conference in Arlington, warned that the economic impact of tariffs is likely to be "more persistent than expected." He stressed the need to keep inflation expectations in check but signaled that the Fed will not rush into new policy moves—rates will stay unchanged for now.
Still, markets did not find comfort: investors rushed to hedge, selling stocks and flocking to bonds. The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell below 3.90%, the lowest since last fall.
Paradoxically, all this is unfolding amid strong macro data: in March, US job growth outpaced forecasts, and unemployment held steady. But as JPMorgan's Michael Feroli notes that these numbers reflect "a mirror of the past," collected before the new tariffs took effect.
Signs of a slowdown are already emerging. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model projects the US economy to shrink 2.8% on an annualized basis in the first quarter. Trump's goal of 3% annual growth now seems a distant dream.
Sentiment is shifting as quickly as stock prices. RBC Capital has already cut its S&P 500 year-end target from 6,200 to 5,550.
Even longtime optimists like John Stoltzfus of Oppenheimer are backing off, calling for a reassessment of assumptions. In other words, even bulls are retreating.
Warnings from analysts are growing louder: the United States may be heading into a recession—and the rest of the world could follow. The data is stark: since 1948, the market has lost an average of 35% during recessions, compared to 28% in "typical" bear markets.
The alarm was amplified by prominent CNBC host and market analyst Jim Cramer, who recently warned of a possible repeat of Black Monday in 1987. According to Cramer, the market is already showing similar signs: a few sharp down days followed by a major collapse.
Against this backdrop, many traders are asking the same question: is it time to buy the dip or wait for an even deeper slide? The answer depends on your time horizon and risk tolerance.
Even after the massive sell-off, the S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio remains elevated—around 23—while in typical recession scenarios, it tends to fall to 15.6. This suggests there is still room to the downside, and betting on a swift rebound could be risky. Market strategists are almost unanimous: this is not the bottom.
Still, every period of turbulence brings opportunities, especially for those who can react quickly. This kind of volatility is perfect for active strategies: traders can open short positions on indices and individual stocks, or shift part of their capital into safer assets like government bonds, which traditionally gain value during periods of instability.
Oil nosedives: Trump and OPEC+ unleash perfect storm on crude
Oil prices have plunged suddenly, sharply, and painfully. In just a couple of trading sessions, Brent crude has tumbled 13%, throwing even the most self-assured analyst forecasts into question. Major investment houses are scrambling to revise their models: demand expectations are falling, annual price targets have been recalculated, and market sentiment is teetering somewhere between cautious skepticism and outright panic. In this article, we will explore what triggered such a steep drop in oil prices, why it may mark only the beginning of a major restructuring of the commodities market, and what opportunities this volatility presents for traders.
Last week, the oil market took a one-two punch. First, the Trump administration rolled out a new wave of trade tariffs. Then came an unexpected move from OPEC+, which announced a sharp increase in output. The former rattled global demand expectations, while the latter shook the very foundations of supply balance.
As a result, Brent crude plummeted, ending Friday's session just above $66 per barrel. That is not just a number—it is a level that left even those recently predicting "recovery" and "stabilization" in the commodity sector utterly blindsided.
The analyst community wasted no time reacting. Goldman Sachs slashed its year-end forecast for Brent from $71 to $66. UBS cut its global demand growth outlook by nearly 50%, while Enverus wiped out a full third of its previous estimate.
The most ironic thing is that these downward revisions come amid broader discussions about global economic recovery. But as Al Salazar, head of macro oil and gas analysis at Enverus, admitted, they had already begun downgrading expectations before OPEC+ made its move: "The moment Trump imposed tariffs on Canada, it became clear we would have to reassess the entire scenario. And then OPEC poured fuel on the fire."
The hit to American producers has proven particularly painful. US oil futures slipped to $61 per barrel, below the breakeven point for most companies, especially in Texas and surrounding regions. According to the Dallas Fed, prices need to stay above $65 for firms to remain profitable. And that's with drilling equipment already up by a third in cost following the imposition of 25% tariffs on imported steel.
In other words: surging costs on one side, and falling prices below profitability on the other. In this environment, the once-iconic slogan "Drill, baby, drill" now sounds less like a call for bold expansion and more like a nostalgic echo from a bygone era. As Roth Capital analyst Leo Mariani aptly put it, "That's not even a conversation anymore."
Meanwhile, Donald Trump does not appear ready to change course. His bet on tariffs is aimed at lowering domestic fuel prices and signaling "energy care" to voters. Theoretically, cheaper gasoline could follow. However, the country that aggressively ramped up production is now facing a harsh reality: selling crude is becoming unprofitable. According to UBS analyst Josh Silverstein, even the most optimistic investors are now considering sub-$60 oil scenarios.
While the US energy sector struggles, Europe is catching a break. Gas prices across the EU have fallen to a six-month low, and markets have welcomed the prospect of reduced competition for LNG. The situation could prove particularly favorable for Germany, which is rapidly filling its storage facilities ahead of winter. Cheaper energy may help ease pressure on its industry, which was hit hard by price spikes following the war in Ukraine.
But while Europe may be catching a short-term break, the picture in the Middle East is far more complex. Saudi Arabia has effectively triggered the price collapse by pushing for a tripling of planned production volumes in May. The official reason is disciplinary action against Iraq and Kazakhstan for exceeding their quotas. But the cost of this move may prove higher than expected.
According to IMF estimates, Riyadh needs oil prices above $90 per barrel to meet its budgetary obligations. For Iraq, the threshold is also around $90, and for Kazakhstan, it is above $115. Already, Saudi authorities have begun slashing investments in infrastructure and social initiatives, cornerstones of the crown prince's ambitious reform agenda. If the price slump continues, OPEC+ could soon be dealing with more than just internal rifts—it may be staring down full-blown fiscal crises.
Against this backdrop, traders are seeing rare opportunities emerge. Yes, the market is volatile, but that's exactly when smart strategies can yield the most. The price slide is setting the stage for short trades on oil and energy stocks, while heightened volatility offers fertile ground for short-term speculation. Currencies of commodity-driven economies could also see significant movement, as their trajectories now hinge on every swing in Brent.
If you are looking to capitalize on this setup, open a trading account with InstaForex. You will get access to a wide range of instruments, from oil and gas to energy stocks and commodity-linked currencies. To stay one step ahead of the markets, download our InstaForex mobile app and manage your strategy directly from your phone.
EUR versus USD: surprise leadership shake-up
As markets digest the fallout from a fresh wave of trade measures unleashed by the Trump administration, one asset has unexpectedly surged ahead. The euro, which until recently had been aggressively sold off in anticipation of hitting parity with the dollar, has come back to life, posting its strongest intraday rally since 2015. What is behind this rebound? Why are investors pivoting to the euro amid global market stress? In this article, we will break down how the currency landscape has shifted, what lies ahead, and where the opportunities are for those who can read between the lines.
Last week, the euro climbed to a six-month high against the dollar, surging 2.7% at one point and closing Thursday's session up 1.8%. The catalyst was a shockingly aggressive round of trade tariffs from the Trump administration. The scope and scale of the new measures far exceeded expectations, hitting dozens of countries and entire sectors, shaking confidence in the resilience of the US economy and prompting a reevaluation of dollar prospects. Investors are now turning to the euro as a more stable alternative.
Just two months ago, the consensus was nearly unanimous: the euro was heading lower, possibly to parity with the dollar. The assumption then was that the eurozone would bear the brunt of the tariff fallout, and that the European Central Bank would be forced to cut rates sharply. But the narrative flipped. Investors are no longer worried about Europe, they are worried about the United States. And that shift has become a pivotal turning point.
As Dominic Bunning, strategist at Nomura, noted, the euro is now one of the chief beneficiaries of a slowdown or even a reversal of the multi-year capital inflows into dollar-denominated assets. According to him, much of that capital had originated in the eurozone, and we are now witnessing a reversal, with capital flowing back into Europe. A growing number of investors are starting to view the euro as a currency capable of preserving stability amid mounting global risks.
This behavior appears uncharacteristic. Typically, in times of market turbulence, investors flock to the dollar as a safe-haven asset, while the euro tends to lose ground. But that logic is breaking down. The US currency is increasingly becoming the center of concern. Talk of a looming recession and an overheated greenback, which some analysts estimate is overvalued by 15%, is gaining traction.
Against this backdrop, currency strategist Luca Paolini predicts it will be the Fed—not the ECB—that will have to ease monetary policy faster and more aggressively. Markets are now pricing in four rate cuts in the US by year-end, compared to three in the eurozone.
Fresh macro data has also contributed to the mood shift. US jobless claims have risen to their highest level since November 2021, a worrisome signal that the American economy may be losing momentum. While the ECB is also preparing new stimulus, the key difference lies in pace and scale. For now, the slowdown appears increasingly plausible in the United States, while Europe is unexpectedly showing signs of revival.
Adding to that is the fiscal factor. Last month, Germany announced a major spending initiative targeting infrastructure, defense, and industrial stimulus. The move has reassured markets that the eurozone is prepared to respond to external challenges not just with monetary tools but also with a proactive fiscal stance.
According to economist Karen Ward, it is the combination of fiscal injections, accommodative monetary policy, and lighter regulatory burdens that is making European assets more appealing. "That's why we're now seeing the euro and European markets start to outperform, even as rates move lower," he said.
Of course, Europe still has its weaknesses. The EU's political architecture is complex and inert. Any major decision requires consensus, which is not always quickly achievable. But as analysts wryly point out, Brussels is not the only place where coordination is in question. The new tariff calculation formula introduced by the Trump administration has puzzled even US allies. Deutsche Bank has already warned of a potential "crisis of confidence in the dollar," as Washington's actions appear increasingly unpredictable.
Against this backdrop, many investors have begun to view the euro from a completely different perspective. Once seen as a second-tier currency, it is now perceived as a more balanced alternative to the dollar. Some market participants are openly calling the shift a "historic opportunity." According to Meera Chandan of JPMorgan Chase, EUR/USD could rise to $1.14–$1.16 in the coming months, especially if eurozone fiscal stimulus begins to show up in macroeconomic data in the second half of the year.
Of course, such a sharp rally does not imply a linear upward trajectory. On Friday, the euro pulled back by 0.6%, partially retracing the previous day's surge. But the broader trend is clear: investors are revisiting their long-term expectations, and the euro is once again in the spotlight.
The key takeaway is that the European currency no longer looks like the weak link in the global economy. Amid growing doubts about the dollar's resilience, a shifting Fed policy stance, and sweeping fiscal initiatives across the eurozone, the euro is getting a genuine shot at reclaiming ground.
For traders, this points to a clear strategy—buy the euro against the dollar, capitalizing on growing interest in European assets and potential US currency weakness. Especially in today's volatile environment and amid a major realignment of global capital flows, such a position could deliver significant returns.
Meta loses market cap but launches Llama 4: AI revolution or distraction from market woes?
As equity markets face steep sell-offs, Meta's market capitalization has plunged by billions over the past two sessions. But in classic Silicon Valley fashion, when the stock is bleeding, it is time to make noise. Enter Llama 4, the latest generation of language models Meta touts as its most powerful AI breakthrough yet. In this article, we will unpack how serious Meta's technological ambitions really are, how Llama 4 fits into the global AI arms race, and whether this move can help restore investor confidence.
Just days ago, Meta unveiled the Llama 4 family of language models, headlined by Behemoth, a true heavyweight boasting nearly two trillion parameters. While Behemoth is still in training, two of its "offspring," Scout and Maverick, are already available to developers and users. Built on a Mixture of Experts (MoE) architecture, these models activate only a portion of their parameters per task, cutting computational costs and improving accessibility.
What is more, the Llama 4 models are multimodal by design. They are trained to process not only text but also images, video, and other data formats. It is a bold step towards more "human-like" AI, capable of navigating complex informational landscapes much like the human brain.
Comparisons to rivals arrived swiftly. According to Meta, Llama 4 Scout and Maverick have outperformed GPT-4o and Gemini 2.0 Pro in benchmarks spanning programming, logical reasoning, image processing, and multilingual tasks. Scout, in particular, boasts a 10 million token context window, an impressive capacity for large-scale text analysis. The models were trained on a massive 30 trillion tokens, double the volume used for Llama 3.
Crucially, Meta is emphasizing its open-source strategy. Unlike OpenAI or Google, Meta is keeping the architecture transparent, available via platforms such as Hugging Face and llama.com. This allows any development team to customize the models for diverse use cases—from AI assistants in messaging apps to complex enterprise solutions. Naturally, Meta has already woven Llama 4 into its flagship products: WhatsApp, Messenger, and Instagram Direct now serve as launchpads for showcasing AI capabilities.
Still, the timing raises eyebrows. The launch comes amid increasing market skepticism about whether Meta can actually monetize such advanced tech. Is Llama 4 a genuine leap forward or a flashy diversion from shrinking margins and intensifying competition from Chinese AI firms like DeepSeek, Baidu, and Tencent?
Just a reminder, since the beginning of the year, China's tech giants have been aggressively rolling out their own AI models: Baidu opened access to Ernie Bot, Tencent integrated AI into WeChat, and Alibaba launched several systems that, by its own account, outperform DeepSeek. Now Meta is clearly being forced to respond.
The key takeaway is that Meta is making a bold technological leap—the launch of Llama 4 underscores the company's serious ambitions in the AI race. But for traders, this is not just tech industry news, it is a prime opportunity. Falling share prices amid market turbulence, the debut of a flagship product, and escalating competition are creating a rich, predictably volatile environment. This opens the door to both downside plays—driven by profit-taking and pressure from rival AI players—and bullish strategies tied to the rollout and monetization of Llama 4.
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