Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

Despite the release of key U.S. economic data, there were no tests of the levels I indicated in the afternoon, and as a result, I had no trades.

Given the uncertainty surrounding the White House's next steps on tariffs, the decline in demand for the euro is quite understandable. Investors are exercising caution ahead of crucial U.S. labor market data that could significantly influence market trends. While the downward correction in EUR/USD was anticipated, deeper selling might still be premature. The current situation requires careful analysis, as the potential for an increase or decrease in interest in the euro will depend not only on the labor market data but also on the broader economic conditions in both Europe and the U.S.

Today's eurozone retail sales data may offer valuable insights into consumer demand and sentiment. If the figures show growth, this could indicate rising consumer confidence and contribute to strengthening the region's economy. However, due to ongoing inflation and uncertainty, consumer behavior may still be unpredictable.

Additionally, the German industrial orders report, scheduled for release in the first half of the day, is likely to capture traders' attention, given Germany's status as the leading economy in the eurozone. A decline in order volume could signal deeper problems in the manufacturing sector, such as supply chain disruptions and shortages of raw materials. This situation could hinder economic recovery and lead to reduced investment levels.

For intraday strategy, I will primarily focus on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, buying the euro is possible if the price reaches 1.0400 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.0427. At 1.0427, I plan to exit the trade and initiate a sell position, expecting a 30-35 pip pullback from the entry level. A strong euro rally in the first half of the day is likely if economic data is positive. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro if the price tests 1.0380 twice while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a market reversal to the upside. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.0400 and 1.0427 is expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.0380 level (red line on the chart), aiming for a drop to 1.0347, where I will exit the market and immediately open a buy position, expecting a 20-25 pip pullback from the level. Selling pressure could return at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro if the price tests 1.0400 twice while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.0380 and 1.0347 is expected.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line: A suggested target for Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line: A suggested target for Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: Critical for identifying overbought and oversold zones to guide market entry decisions.

Important Note for Beginner Traders

• Always approach market entry decisions cautiously.
• Avoid trading during major news releases to sidestep volatile price swings.
• If trading during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses.
• Trading without stop-loss orders or money management practices can quickly deplete your deposit, especially when using large volumes.
• A clear trading plan, like the one outlined above, is essential for successful trading. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently disadvantageous for intraday traders.