empty
14.04.2025 12:59 AM
The US Dollar: Weekly Preview

This image is no longer relevant

There will be a few significant events in the upcoming week. Of course, reports such as industrial production, retail sales, and new home sales should be noted. At first glance, they do not appear to be able to change market sentiment. While the European Central Bank meeting and UK inflation data at least have some potential to influence the market, the US data do not appear to carry such weight.

As a result, everything will come down to Donald Trump's decisions. The president may take a break, as endlessly imposing tariffs isn't feasible — it simply makes no sense. All countries have been granted a 90-day grace period, so we will likely not see new tariffs against them. China has so far stopped tariffs at 125% and has not yet responded to Trump's most recent increase to 145%. Therefore, a pause is also possible here. If the pause lasts at least a week, the US dollar may get a chance to recover slightly.

This image is no longer relevant

Unfortunately, we are talking about Trump, meaning making forecasts is essentially pointless. The current wave markings for both instruments suggest a new prolonged uptrend. However, if Trump pauses, it will be extremely difficult for the euro and the pound to continue rising. New tariffs have triggered every drop in the dollar in recent months. As I've said, wave analysis cannot be a primary reference point in forecasting under current conditions.

Wave Structure for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument is continuing to form a new upward trend segment. Donald Trump's actions have reversed the previous downward trend. As a result, the upcoming wave structure will entirely depend on the US president's stance and actions — something that must always be kept in mind.

From a purely wave-based perspective, a corrective wave structure is likely forming, typically consisting of three waves. However, wave 2 may already be complete. If this assumption is correct, wave 3 of the upward trend may have already begun — with potential targets reaching as high as the 1.25 area.

This image is no longer relevant

Wave Structure for GBP/USD:

The wave structure of the GBP/USD instrument has transformed. We are now dealing with an upward impulsive trend segment. Unfortunately, under Trump, markets may face numerous shocks and reversals that do not align with wave patterns or technical analysis. Therefore, at the moment, a corrective wave structure should be expected, the size of which will also depend on Trump. Afterward, the formation of wave 3 of the uptrend could follow — but only if Trump's trade policy doesn't make a complete U-turn, which currently seems unlikely.


Key Principles of My Analysis:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often change.
  2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it's better to stay out.
  3. Absolute certainty in market direction never exists. Don't forget protective Stop Loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis can and should be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.
Chin Zhao,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Selecionar intervalo de tempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
dia
1
s.
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

GBP/JPY. Análise e previsão

O GBP/JPY recua do nível psicológico de 190,00 — ou da máxima de duas semanas atingida mais cedo nesta terça-feira. Após a divulgação de dados decepcionantes dos PMIs do Reino

Irina Yanina 19:04 2025-04-23 UTC+2

Os mercados aguardam uma grande recuperação se os EUA iniciarem negociações reais com a China (há uma probabilidade de crescimento contínuo em #NDX e Ethereum)

Uma nova onda de euforia tomou conta dos mercados. Muitos acreditam que não se trata de uma coincidência: tire tudo de uma pessoa e, em seguida, forneça até mesmo

Pati Gani 17:58 2025-04-23 UTC+2

Em que prestar atenção em 23 de abril?Análise dos eventos fundamentais para iniciantes

Um número considerável de eventos macroeconômicos está programado para quarta-feira, todos relacionados aos relatórios do Índice de Gerentes de Compras (PMI) de abril, nos setores de serviços e manufatura

Paolo Greco 17:27 2025-04-23 UTC+2

O mercado está caminhando por um campo minado

Se o mercado consegue subir tanto apenas com sugestões do secretário do Tesouro, Scott Bessent, sobre uma possível desescalada no conflito comercial com a China, imagine o salto

Marek Petkovich 14:37 2025-04-23 UTC+2

A probabilidade de uma reversão do euro para o sul está aumentando

Como esperado, o BCE cortou todas as principais taxas de juros em 0,25 ponto percentual, reduzindo a taxa de depósito para 2,25%. Nesta reunião, nenhuma nova projeção da equipe

Kuvat Raharjo 14:25 2025-04-23 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Análise e previsão

Após atingir um novo recorde histórico de US$ 3.500 em condições de sobrecompra, os preços do ouro estão recuando. No entanto, o sentimento de alta permanece forte, impulsionado pelas preocupações

Irina Yanina 20:51 2025-04-22 UTC+2

O dólar estava bem intencionado. Mas as coisas correram como de costume

Cuidado com o que você deseja. O desejo de Donald Trump de tornar os Estados Unidos grandes novamente e retornar a uma era de ouro está saindo pela culatra, corroendo

Marek Petkovich 17:37 2025-04-22 UTC+2

A perda de confiança no Fed pressionará o dólar (é provável que o Bitcoin continue subindo e que o USD/CAD caia)

Na segunda-feira, o mercado de ações dos Estados Unidos sofreu uma queda acentuada, arrastando diversas bolsas globais, à medida que as ações "turbulentas" do presidente Trump continuam a transitar

Pati Gani 17:22 2025-04-22 UTC+2

Mercado: Águas paradas são profundas

É impossível injetar capital em uma economia desestabilizada pela política. O capital continua a fluir para fora dos Estados Unidos, e os ataques de Donald Trump ao Federal Reserve apenas

Marek Petkovich 17:08 2025-04-22 UTC+2

Em que prestar atenção em 22 de abril? Uma análise dos eventos fundamentais para iniciantes

Não há eventos macroeconômicos programados para terça-feira — nem nos EUA, nem na zona do euro, nem na Alemanha, nem no Reino Unido. Portanto, mesmo que o mercado estivesse atento

Paolo Greco 16:12 2025-04-22 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.