Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are very few macroeconomic events scheduled for Thursday, but the market seems to be disregarding them entirely. The only notable report for the day will be the U.S. jobless claims report—nothing else on the agenda. However, one key event is expected to influence the trading tone for the day.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

It is important to highlight several key events from Thursday, particularly the meeting of the Bank of England and the speech by Andrew Bailey. There is a 99% probability that the BoE will decide to lower the key interest rate, which could lead to a decline in the value of the pound. Additionally, Bailey is unlikely to adopt a hawkish stance, further contributing to the potential drop in the pound's value. Another factor to consider is the data that were overlooked yesterday. Furthermore, today will feature speeches from representatives of the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve, including Joachim Nagel, Philip Jefferson, Christopher Waller, and Mary Daly. Based on their previous remarks, it seems clear that the monetary policy of both the Fed and the ECB is unlikely to change. The ECB still plans to bring its rates to a neutral level in the near future, while the Fed is content to proceed cautiously.

General Conclusions:

On the fourth trading day of the week, market movements can be unpredictable. Novice traders should focus more on technical factors today. The BoE's meeting will likely set the tone for the market, and we may see significant changes in the middle of the day. In the short term, both currency pairs are expected to rise, while in the long term, they are likely to decline. Although the upward correction is not yet complete, there is also a possibility of a downward pullback within this correction.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.