Analysis of Trades and Trading Recommendations for the Euro

The 1.0380 price test occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had significantly dropped below the zero mark, limiting the downward potential of the pair. For this reason, I did not sell and missed the entire euro decline. I did not identify any other entry points.

Despite positive signals from Germany, economic uncertainty in the eurozone continues to concern investors, who are closely monitoring future indicators. The increase in industrial orders in Germany failed to support the euro. However, today's decline in retail sales likely eased concerns about rising prices, which remains a major concern for the European Central Bank (ECB).

Later today, we expect U.S. weekly jobless claims data, which may indicate a rise in applications, suggesting some deterioration in the labor market. However, tomorrow's unemployment rate report will be a more significant indicator, particularly in forecasting market trends.

Speeches by Christopher Waller and Mary Daly today could be key factors influencing the dollar's movement. If their statements adopt a dovish tone, this will weaken the U.S. currency. Earlier this week, similar comments already triggered a decline in the dollar. If this trend continues, it will open new opportunities for risk asset growth.

For my intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Buying EUR/USD is possible at 1.0374 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.0404. At 1.0404, I plan to exit the market and open sell positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30-35 point movement. Buying the euro today is justified only if U.S. data is weak.

Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy EUR/USD if the price tests 1.0353 twice, provided the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. Target levels: 1.0374 and 1.0404.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Selling the euro is possible after reaching 1.0353 (red line on the chart) with a target of 1.0320. At 1.0320, I plan to exit short positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction, targeting a 20-25 point upward move. Selling pressure on the pair may return at any moment, especially after strong U.S. economic data.

Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell EUR/USD if the price tests 1.0374 twice, provided the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. Target levels: 1.0353 and 1.0320.

Chart Key

• Thin green line – Entry price for buying.
• Thick green line – Estimated Take Profit level or potential price to exit long positions, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – Entry price for selling.
• Thick red line – Estimated Take Profit level or potential price to exit short positions, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator – Always consider overbought and oversold zones before entering the market.

Important Notes for Beginner Forex Traders

Be cautious when making trading decisions, especially before key fundamental reports are released. Avoid trading during major news events to minimize exposure to sharp price swings. Always set stop-loss orders to limit potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly deplete your deposit, especially when trading large volumes.

A well-structured trading plan is essential—use a strategy similar to the one outlined above. Avoid impulsive trading decisions based on current market movements—this approach is typically a losing strategy for intraday traders.