Analysis of Trades and Trading Recommendations for the Japanese Yen

The 152.85 price test earlier today coincided with the MACD indicator moving significantly above the zero mark and remaining in the overbought zone for an extended period. This, combined with divergence, confirmed a strong selling opportunity for USD/JPY, aligning with the ongoing downtrend observed in recent days. As a result, the pair declined by more than 30 points.

The next key event is the upcoming U.S. labor market data. If initial jobless claims remain at the same level as the previous week, it is unlikely to attract much attention from economists and traders. A stable labor market despite economic uncertainty could support the dollar, but market participants will focus more on speeches from FOMC members Christopher Waller and Mary Daly, both known for their dovish stance on future monetary policy.

If they suggest that Trump's policies are not yet influencing the Fed's outlook, it could put additional pressure on the dollar and boost demand for the Japanese yen.

For my intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2, following the continuation of the downtrend.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Buying USD/JPY is possible at 152.73 (green line on the chart) with a target of 153.35. At 153.35, I plan to exit long positions and open sell trades in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30-35 point downward move. Buying USD/JPY today is only advisable after strong U.S. data.

Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if the price tests 152.26 twice, provided the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit downside risk and lead to a reversal upwards. Target levels: 152.73 and 153.35.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Selling USD/JPY is possible after breaking 152.26 (red line on the chart) with a target of 151.64. At 151.64, I plan to exit short positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20-25 point upward move. Selling pressure will increase if U.S. data is weak.

Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if the price tests 152.73 twice, provided the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. Target levels: 152.26 and 151.64.

Chart Key

• Thin green line – Entry price for buying.
• Thick green line – Estimated Take Profit level or potential price to exit long positions, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – Entry price for selling.
• Thick red line – Estimated Take Profit level or potential price to exit short positions, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator – Always consider overbought and oversold zones before entering the market.

Important Notes for Beginner Forex Traders

Be cautious when making trading decisions, especially before key fundamental reports are released. Avoid trading during major news events to minimize exposure to sharp price swings. Always set stop-loss orders to limit potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly deplete your deposit, especially when trading large volumes.

A well-structured trading plan is essential—use a strategy similar to the one outlined above. Avoid impulsive trading decisions based on current market movements—this approach is typically a losing strategy for intraday traders.